Rochdale vs Gillingham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Crown Oil Arena, Rochdale, Greater Manchester
The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rochdale vs Gillingham?
Rochdale starts as the favourite with a 242-point Elo edge (1,890 vs 1,648).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rochdale have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Gillingham have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Rochdale win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Gillingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | Rochdale 0-2 Gillingham | League Two |
| Aug 6, 2022 | Gillingham 1-0 Rochdale | League Two |
| Jan 23, 2021 | Gillingham 2-2 Rochdale | League One |
| Dec 19, 2020 | Rochdale 1-4 Gillingham | League One |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Rochdale 2-2 Gillingham | League One |
| Dec 29, 2019 | Gillingham 1-0 Rochdale | League One |
Last archived meeting: Rochdale vs Gillingham on Feb 18, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Rochdale score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rochdale sit 23rd in League Two (0 points from 2 matches) and Gillingham sit 21st (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Gillingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rochdale vs Gillingham?
- The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Rochdale vs Gillingham played?
- Rochdale vs Gillingham is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Crown Oil Arena, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.