Gneist vs Varegg: prediction and stats
3. Division - Girone 3Regular Season - 20Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Liland kunstgress, Bergen
The Footlab model makes Varegg the favourite at 41%, against 21% for a draw and 39% for Gneist. The most likely score is 2-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gneist vs Varegg?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Gneist (1,466) and Varegg (1,556).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gneist have 3 wins, 1 draws and 11 defeats; Varegg have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Førde(home) | 1-2 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fana(away) | 0-4 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Vard(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Brann II(home) | 0-3 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Djerv(away) | 2-6 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Sogndal II(away) | 1-3 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Askøy(home) | 1-3 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fyllingsdalen(away) | 4-0 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Fana(home) | 4-2 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Os(away) | 0-4 | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Gneist win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Varegg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Varegg 0-1 Gneist | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Gneist score 1.8 and concede 3.1 goals per match over their last 15; Varegg score 1.4 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gneist | 1.8 | 3.1 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Varegg | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gneist sit 12th in 3. Division - Girone 3 (13 points from 16 matches) and Varegg sit 13th (12 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gneist | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 48 | 13 |
| 13 | Varegg | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 34 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gneist vs Varegg?
- The Footlab model makes Varegg the favourite at 41%, against 21% for a draw and 39% for Gneist.
- Where and when is Gneist vs Varegg played?
- Gneist vs Varegg is played on September 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Liland kunstgress, in the 3. Division - Girone 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.