Gonio vs Merani Tbilisi: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 26Kick-off on October 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Gonio the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Merani Tbilisi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gonio vs Merani Tbilisi?
Gonio starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,389 vs 1,267).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gonio have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Merani Tbilisi have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi(away) | 0-4 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Iveria Khashuri(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Iberia 2010(away) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Meshakhte(home) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Dinamo Sokhumi(away) | 3-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Betlemi(away) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Guria(home) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Didube 2014(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Guria(away) | 1-6 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Irao(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Gonio win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Merani Tbilisi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Merani Tbilisi 1-1 Gonio | Liga 3 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | Gonio 2-5 Merani Tbilisi | Liga 3 |
| Jun 5, 2024 | Merani Tbilisi 0-3 Gonio | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Merani Tbilisi vs Gonio on May 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gonio score 1.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Merani Tbilisi score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonio | 1.8 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Merani Tbilisi | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gonio sit 4th in Liga 3 (34 points from 18 matches) and Merani Tbilisi sit 7th (29 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gonio | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 16 | 34 |
| 7 | Merani Tbilisi | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gonio vs Merani Tbilisi?
- The Footlab model makes Gonio the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Merani Tbilisi.
- Where and when is Gonio vs Merani Tbilisi played?
- Gonio vs Merani Tbilisi is played on October 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC), in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.