Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Gardabani: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 26Kick-off on October 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Lokomotivi Tbilisi the favourite at 70%, against 18% for a draw and 12% for Gardabani. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Gardabani?
Lokomotivi Tbilisi starts as the favourite with a 250-point Elo edge (1,370 vs 1,120).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotivi Tbilisi have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Gardabani have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Gonio(home) | 4-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Saburtalo II(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Guria(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Basa(away) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iveria Khashuri(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Didube 2014(home) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Irao(away) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | WIT Georgia(home) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Iberia 2010(home) | 1-5 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Varketili(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Lokomotivi Tbilisi win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Gardabani win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Gardabani 1-1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Gardabani vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi on May 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotivi Tbilisi score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Gardabani score 0.9 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 1.2 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Gardabani | 0.9 | 2.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotivi Tbilisi sit 10th in Liga 3 (23 points from 18 matches) and Gardabani sit 13th (13 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 23 |
| 13 | Gardabani | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 40 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Gardabani?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotivi Tbilisi the favourite at 70%, against 18% for a draw and 12% for Gardabani.
- Where and when is Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Gardabani played?
- Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Gardabani is played on October 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.