GOR Mahia vs Homeboyz: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 16, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Homeboyz. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GOR Mahia vs Homeboyz?
GOR Mahia starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (1,680 vs 1,531).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GOR Mahia have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Homeboyz have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 1-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 1-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri(home) | 1-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Vipers(home) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 24, 2026 | APR(away) | 5-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Police(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 3, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 GOR Mahia win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Homeboyz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Homeboyz 0-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 17, 2025 | GOR Mahia 1-0 Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Homeboyz 0-0 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 27, 2024 | GOR Mahia 2-0 Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| Apr 6, 2024 | GOR Mahia 0-0 Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Homeboyz 1-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
GOR Mahia score 1.1 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Homeboyz score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOR Mahia | 1.1 | 0.6 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Homeboyz | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GOR Mahia sit 1st in FKF Premier League (69 points from 34 matches) and Homeboyz sit 6th (49 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 50 | 22 | 69 |
| 6 | Homeboyz | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 47 | 37 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GOR Mahia vs Homeboyz?
- The Footlab model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Homeboyz.
- Where and when is GOR Mahia vs Homeboyz played?
- GOR Mahia vs Homeboyz is played on April 16, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Nyayo National Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.