Tusker vs GOR Mahia: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Ruaraka Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 47%, against 32% for a draw and 22% for Tusker. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tusker vs GOR Mahia?
GOR Mahia starts as the favourite with a 161-point Elo edge (1,680 vs 1,520).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tusker have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; GOR Mahia have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVZ(home) | 2-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Rayon Sports(home) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(away) | 0-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Police(home) | 2-1 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 1-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 1-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri(home) | 1-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Vipers(home) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 24, 2026 | APR(away) | 5-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tusker win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 GOR Mahia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Tusker 1-0 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 22, 2025 | GOR Mahia 1-0 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | GOR Mahia 0-0 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Tusker 2-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GOR Mahia 1-0 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Tusker 0-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Tusker score 0.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; GOR Mahia score 1.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tusker | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
| GOR Mahia | 1.1 | 0.6 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tusker sit 9th in FKF Premier League (45 points from 34 matches) and GOR Mahia sit 1st (69 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 50 | 22 | 69 |
| 9 | Tusker | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 32 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tusker vs GOR Mahia?
- The Footlab model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 47%, against 32% for a draw and 22% for Tusker.
- Where and when is Tusker vs GOR Mahia played?
- Tusker vs GOR Mahia is played on April 24, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Ruaraka Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.