Gravina vs Virtus Francavilla: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Stefano Vicino, Gravina in Puglia
The Footlab model makes Gravina the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Virtus Francavilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gravina vs Virtus Francavilla?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Gravina (1,762) and Virtus Francavilla (1,708).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gravina have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Virtus Francavilla have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Real Normanna(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Afragolese(away) | 6-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Paganese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ferrandina(away) | 5-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Martina Franca(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sarnese(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pompei(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Francavilla(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Afragolese(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Gravina win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Virtus Francavilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Virtus Francavilla 0-1 Gravina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Gravina 0-0 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Virtus Francavilla 1-1 Gravina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Gravina 0-1 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
Last archived meeting: Virtus Francavilla vs Gravina on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gravina score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Virtus Francavilla score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravina | 1.9 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Virtus Francavilla | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gravina sit 6th in Serie D - Girone H (55 points from 34 matches) and Virtus Francavilla sit 9th (48 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Gravina | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 50 | 40 | 55 |
| 9 | Virtus Francavilla | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45 | 40 | 48 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gravina vs Virtus Francavilla?
- The Footlab model makes Gravina the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Virtus Francavilla.
- Where and when is Gravina vs Virtus Francavilla played?
- Gravina vs Virtus Francavilla is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Stefano Vicino, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.