Ebolitana vs Virtus Francavilla: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Virtus Francavilla the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Ebolitana. The most likely score is 1-1. If Virtus Francavilla wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,500 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ebolitana vs Virtus Francavilla?
Virtus Francavilla starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,824 vs 1,695).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ebolitana vs Virtus Francavilla
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ebolitana
Not enough data to predict the Ebolitana lineup.
Virtus Francavilla
Not enough data to predict the Virtus Francavilla lineup.
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 10:06 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 10 matches in all competitions, Ebolitana have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Virtus Francavilla have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Brindisi(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Gravina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 18, 2026 | USD Palmese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Martina Franca(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Ischia(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Turris(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(away) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Manfredonia(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Forio 2014(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
How many goals should we expect?
Ebolitana score 0.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 10; Virtus Francavilla score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebolitana | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1 | 5/10 | 4/10 |
| Virtus Francavilla | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 10 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ebolitana sit 14th in Serie D - Girone H (9 points from 10 matches) and Virtus Francavilla sit 1st (21 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 21 |
| 14 | Ebolitana | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 9 |
A question about Ebolitana vs Virtus Francavilla?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ebolitana vs Virtus Francavilla?
- The Footlab AI model makes Virtus Francavilla the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Ebolitana.
- Where and when is Ebolitana vs Virtus Francavilla played?
- Ebolitana vs Virtus Francavilla is played on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.