Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Blundell Park, Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire
The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Bristol Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Grimsby (1,834) and Bristol Rovers (1,754).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grimsby have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Bristol Rovers have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Grimsby Borough(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Grimsby win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Bristol Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Bristol Rovers 3-1 Grimsby | League Two |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Grimsby 0-1 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Feb 14, 2015 | Grimsby 0-1 Bristol Rovers | National League |
| Aug 9, 2014 | Bristol Rovers 0-0 Grimsby | National League |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Grimsby on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Grimsby score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grimsby sit 8th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Bristol Rovers sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grimsby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Bristol Rovers.
- Where and when is Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers played?
- Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Blundell Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.