Grimsby vs Colchester: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 1, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Blundell Park, Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire
The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Colchester. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grimsby vs Colchester?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Grimsby (1,834) and Colchester (1,763).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grimsby have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Colchester have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Grimsby Borough(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Accrington ST(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Grimsby win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Colchester win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | Colchester 0-1 Grimsby | League Two |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Grimsby 1-2 Colchester | League Two |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Colchester 1-2 Grimsby | League Two |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Grimsby 0-1 Colchester | League Two |
| Apr 16, 2024 | Colchester 2-0 Grimsby | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Grimsby 2-3 Colchester | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Colchester vs Grimsby on Jan 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Grimsby score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Colchester score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Colchester | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grimsby sit 8th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Colchester sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Colchester | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Grimsby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grimsby vs Colchester?
- The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Colchester.
- Where and when is Grimsby vs Colchester played?
- Grimsby vs Colchester is played on December 1, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Blundell Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.