Shrewsbury vs Northampton: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury, Shropshire
The Footlab model makes Shrewsbury the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Northampton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shrewsbury vs Northampton?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Shrewsbury (1,640) and Northampton (1,656).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shrewsbury have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Northampton have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Barnet(home) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Hereford(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Shrewsbury win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Northampton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | Northampton 2-1 Shrewsbury | EFL Trophy |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Northampton 4-1 Shrewsbury | League One |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Shrewsbury 1-1 Northampton | League One |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Northampton 0-2 Shrewsbury | League One |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Shrewsbury 1-0 Northampton | League One |
| Apr 2, 2021 | Northampton 1-0 Shrewsbury | League One |
Last archived meeting: Northampton vs Shrewsbury on Nov 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Shrewsbury score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shrewsbury sit 24th in League Two (0 points from 2 matches) and Northampton sit 18th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 24 | Shrewsbury | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shrewsbury vs Northampton?
- The Footlab model makes Shrewsbury the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Northampton.
- Where and when is Shrewsbury vs Northampton played?
- Shrewsbury vs Northampton is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Croud Meadow, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.