Groene Ster vs FC Lisse: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark Pronsenbroek, Heerlen
The Footlab model makes FC Lisse the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Groene Ster. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groene Ster vs FC Lisse?
FC Lisse starts as the favourite with a 275-point Elo edge (1,828 vs 1,553).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groene Ster have 4 wins, 0 draws and 11 defeats; FC Lisse have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Roosendaal(home) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | ASWH(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | TOGB(away) | 1-5 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 9, 2026 | Kloetinge(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Roosendaal(away) | 1-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Aalsmeer(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Achilles Veen(home) | 4-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TOGB(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 30, 2026 | ADO '20(home) | 0-1 | Tweede Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Groene Ster win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 FC Lisse win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Groene Ster 2-2 FC Lisse | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Aug 23, 2025 | FC Lisse 1-1 Groene Ster | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
Last archived meeting: Groene Ster vs FC Lisse on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Groene Ster score 1.2 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; FC Lisse score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groene Ster | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
| FC Lisse | 1.9 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groene Ster sit 17th in Derde Divisie (0 points from 2 matches) and FC Lisse sit 3rd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Lisse | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 17 | Groene Ster | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groene Ster vs FC Lisse?
- The Footlab model makes FC Lisse the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Groene Ster.
- Where and when is Groene Ster vs FC Lisse played?
- Groene Ster vs FC Lisse is played on May 9, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Pronsenbroek, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.