Excelsior '31 vs Hollandia: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Koerbelt, Rijssen
The Footlab model makes Excelsior '31 the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Hollandia. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior '31 vs Hollandia?
Excelsior '31 starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,750 vs 1,633).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior '31 have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Hollandia have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Staphorst(away) | 4-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eemdijk(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | URK(away) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Staphorst(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 9, 2026 | TEC(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | ACV(home) | 0-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Harkemase Boys(away) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Jun 7, 2026 | HBC(home) | 2-0 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| Jun 3, 2026 | HBC(away) | 1-0 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
| May 30, 2026 | Huizen(away) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie - Relegation Round |
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior '31 score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Hollandia score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior '31 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Hollandia | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior '31 sit 1st in Derde Divisie (6 points from 2 matches) and Hollandia sit 17th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior '31 vs Hollandia?
- The Footlab model makes Excelsior '31 the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Hollandia.
- Where and when is Excelsior '31 vs Hollandia played?
- Excelsior '31 vs Hollandia is played on May 8, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Koerbelt, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.