Match

Guadalajara II vs Marchamalo: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)

Guadalajara IIMarchamalo

The Footlab model makes Guadalajara II the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Marchamalo. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Guadalajara II vs Marchamalo?

A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Guadalajara II (1,731) and Marchamalo (1,706).

Guadalajara II win44 %
Draw30 %
Marchamalo win25 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guadalajara II have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Marchamalo have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Guadalajara II
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 10, 2026Azuqueca(away)0-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
May 3, 2026Villarrubia(home)2-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
Apr 25, 2026Tarancón(away)0-3Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
Apr 18, 2026Pedroñeras(home)1-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
Apr 12, 2026Calvo Sotelo(away)0-4Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 18, 2026Guadalajara(home)1-0Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026Pozuelo Alarcón(away)1-0Friendlies Clubs
May 10, 2026Sonseca(away)0-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
May 3, 2026Azuqueca(home)0-4Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
Apr 25, 2026Villarrubia(away)2-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Guadalajara II win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Marchamalo win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 17, 2026Guadalajara II 1-0 MarchamaloTercera División RFEF - Group 18
Sep 6, 2025Marchamalo 1-1 Guadalajara IITercera División RFEF - Group 18

Last archived meeting: Guadalajara II vs Marchamalo on Jan 17, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Guadalajara II score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Marchamalo score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Guadalajara II0.91.145/156/15
Marchamalo1.21.447/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Guadalajara II sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (44 points from 34 matches) and Marchamalo sit 13th (37 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
9Guadalajara II34111113303744
13Marchamalo3410717374537

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Guadalajara II vs Marchamalo?
The Footlab model makes Guadalajara II the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Marchamalo.
Where and when is Guadalajara II vs Marchamalo played?
Guadalajara II vs Marchamalo is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Guadalajara II and Marchamalo

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