Gualaceo SC vs El Nacional: prediction and stats
Liga Pro Serie BRelegation Group - 1Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Jorge Andrade Cantos, Azogues
The Footlab model makes Gualaceo SC the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for El Nacional. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gualaceo SC vs El Nacional?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Gualaceo SC (1,593) and El Nacional (1,541).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gualaceo SC have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; El Nacional have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors(away) | 3-0 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico FC(home) | 0-0 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 1-2 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ind. Juniors(home) | 2-3 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Macara(home) | 1-1 | Copa Ecuador |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Ind. Juniors(away) | 1-1 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Aug 13, 2026 | San Antonio(home) | 0-1 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 9 de Octubre(home) | 1-0 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 22 de Julio(away) | 3-1 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Gualaceo SC(home) | 0-0 | Liga Pro Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gualaceo SC win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 El Nacional win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | El Nacional 0-0 Gualaceo SC | Liga Pro Serie B |
| May 2, 2026 | Gualaceo SC 2-0 El Nacional | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Nov 12, 2023 | El Nacional 4-2 Gualaceo SC | Liga Pro |
| Jun 4, 2023 | Gualaceo SC 3-4 El Nacional | Liga Pro |
| Oct 7, 2021 | El Nacional 4-2 Gualaceo SC | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Aug 11, 2021 | Gualaceo SC 1-0 El Nacional | Liga Pro Serie B |
Last archived meeting: El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC on Jul 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gualaceo SC score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; El Nacional score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gualaceo SC | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| El Nacional | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gualaceo SC sit 7th in Liga Pro Serie B (29 points from 22 matches) and El Nacional sit 12th (12 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 16 | 29 |
| 10 | Gualaceo SC | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 14 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 32 | 12 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gualaceo SC vs El Nacional?
- The Footlab model makes Gualaceo SC the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for El Nacional.
- Where and when is Gualaceo SC vs El Nacional played?
- Gualaceo SC vs El Nacional is played on August 29, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Jorge Andrade Cantos, in the Liga Pro Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.