Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)MFA Centenary Stadium, Ta'Qali
The Footlab model makes Marsaxlokk the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Gzira United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk?
Marsaxlokk starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,571 vs 1,465).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gzira United have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Marsaxlokk have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Valletta FC(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Birkirkara(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Marsaxlokk(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Valletta FC(away) | 1-2 | FA Trophy |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Floriana(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Hibernians(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Balzan FC(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gzira United(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gzira United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Marsaxlokk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Marsaxlokk 0-1 Gzira United | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Marsaxlokk 2-1 Gzira United | Premier League |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Gzira United 3-0 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Marsaxlokk 2-0 Gzira United | Premier League |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Gzira United 0-1 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Gzira United 0-0 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Marsaxlokk vs Gzira United on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gzira United score 1.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Marsaxlokk score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gzira United | 1.0 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Marsaxlokk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gzira United sit 12th in Premier League (0 points from 2 matches) and Marsaxlokk sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Marsaxlokk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Gzira United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk?
- The Footlab model makes Marsaxlokk the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Gzira United.
- Where and when is Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk played?
- Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk is played on October 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at MFA Centenary Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.