Haka vs MP: prediction and stats
YkkösliigaGroup StageKick-off on September 6, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Tehtaan kenttä, Valkeakoski
The Footlab model makes Haka the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for MP. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Haka vs MP?
Haka starts as the favourite with a 174-point Elo edge (1,739 vs 1,565).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Haka have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; MP have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | SJK Akatemia(home) | 2-0 | Ykkösliiga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | JäPS(away) | 2-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | JIPPO(home) | 3-0 | Ykkösliiga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | PK-35(away) | 4-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | KäPa(home) | 3-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Klubi-04(away) | 3-4 | Ykkösliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | EIF(home) | 0-2 | Ykkösliiga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | JäPS(away) | 0-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Jul 29, 2026 | KäPa(home) | 2-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kooteepee(home) | 3-3 | Ykkösliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Haka win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 MP win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2026 | MP 2-1 Haka | Ykkösliiga |
| May 2, 2026 | MP 1-0 Haka | Ykkösliiga |
| Jun 16, 2020 | MP 1-3 Haka | Suomen Cup |
| Mar 7, 2017 | Haka 5-0 MP | Suomen Cup |
| Oct 1, 2015 | Haka 2-0 MP | Ykkönen |
| Aug 2, 2015 | MP 3-4 Haka | Ykkönen |
How many goals should we expect?
Haka score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; MP score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| MP | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Haka sit 3rd in Ykkösliiga (40 points from 20 matches) and MP sit 7th (21 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Haka | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 20 | 40 |
| 3 | Haka | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 20 | 40 |
| 7 | MP | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 21 |
| 7 | MP | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Haka vs MP?
- The Footlab model makes Haka the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for MP.
- Where and when is Haka vs MP played?
- Haka vs MP is played on September 6, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Tehtaan kenttä, in the Ykkösliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.