Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: prediction and stats
Ligat Ha'alRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium, Be'er Sheva
The Footlab model makes Hapoel Beer Sheva the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Maccabi Tel Aviv. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Hapoel Beer Sheva (2,109) and Maccabi Tel Aviv (2,088).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hapoel Beer Sheva have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Maccabi Tel Aviv have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sabah FA(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hapoel Haifa(away) | 0-4 | Toto Cup Ligat Al |
| Aug 11, 2026 | FK Crvena Zvezda(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | FK Crvena Zvezda(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Vikingur Reykjavik(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Lugano(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Maccabi Netanya(away) | 1-0 | Toto Cup Ligat Al |
| Aug 13, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sheriff Tiraspol(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Hapoel Beer Sheva win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Maccabi Tel Aviv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-3 Maccabi Tel Aviv | Super Cup |
| May 26, 2026 | Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-2 Maccabi Tel Aviv | State Cup |
| May 19, 2026 | Hapoel Beer Sheva 4-2 Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva | Ligat Ha'al |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-3 Hapoel Beer Sheva | Ligat Ha'al |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al |
Last archived meeting: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv on Jul 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hapoel Beer Sheva score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Maccabi Tel Aviv score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1.7 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | 2.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hapoel Beer Sheva sit 1st in Ligat Ha'al (79 points from 36 matches) and Maccabi Tel Aviv sit 3rd (66 points from 36 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 36 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 79 | 38 | 79 |
| 3 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 36 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 75 | 46 | 66 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
- The Footlab model makes Hapoel Beer Sheva the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
- Where and when is Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv played?
- Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv is played on September 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium, in the Ligat Ha'al.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.