Harksheide vs Buchholz: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HamburgHamburg - 8Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Kunstrasenplatz collatz+schwartz Sportpark, Norderstedt
The Footlab model makes Buchholz the favourite at 53%, against 20% for a draw and 27% for Harksheide. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Harksheide vs Buchholz?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Harksheide (1,706) and Buchholz (1,787).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Harksheide have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Buchholz have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tus Dassendorf(home) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sasel(away) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Süderelbe(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Pinneberg(away) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | HT16(away) | 4-5 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Concordia(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tus Dassendorf(home) | 0-4 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sasel(away) | 4-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | ETSV Hamburg(away) | 2-6 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 12, 2026 | Teutonia Ottensen(home) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Harksheide win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Buchholz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Buchholz 4-1 Harksheide | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Harksheide 2-0 Buchholz | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Buchholz 1-3 Harksheide | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Harksheide 2-2 Buchholz | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 11, 2024 | Buchholz 4-2 Harksheide | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Harksheide 3-1 Buchholz | Oberliga - Hamburg |
Last archived meeting: Buchholz vs Harksheide on Apr 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Harksheide score 1.6 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Buchholz score 2.3 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harksheide | 1.6 | 2.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Buchholz | 2.3 | 2.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Harksheide sit 11th in Oberliga - Hamburg (45 points from 34 matches) and Buchholz sit 12th (44 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Harksheide | 34 | 14 | 3 | 17 | 65 | 92 | 45 |
| 12 | Buchholz | 34 | 14 | 2 | 18 | 87 | 80 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Harksheide vs Buchholz?
- The Footlab model makes Buchholz the favourite at 53%, against 20% for a draw and 27% for Harksheide.
- Where and when is Harksheide vs Buchholz played?
- Harksheide vs Buchholz is played on September 18, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Kunstrasenplatz collatz+schwartz Sportpark, in the Oberliga - Hamburg.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.