Match

Harksheide vs Sasel: prediction and stats

Oberliga - HamburgHamburg - 20Kick-off on January 29, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Kunstrasenplatz collatz+schwartz Sportpark, Norderstedt

HarksheideSasel

The Footlab model makes Sasel the favourite at 47%, against 20% for a draw and 32% for Harksheide. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Harksheide vs Sasel?

A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Harksheide (1,706) and Sasel (1,799).

Harksheide win32 %
Draw20 %
Sasel win47 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Harksheide have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Sasel have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Harksheide
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 21, 2026Tus Dassendorf(home)1-3Oberliga - Hamburg
Aug 16, 2026Sasel(away)1-3Oberliga - Hamburg
Jul 31, 2026Süderelbe(home)1-1Oberliga - Hamburg
Jul 26, 2026Pinneberg(away)1-2Oberliga - Hamburg
May 15, 2026HT16(away)4-5Oberliga - Hamburg
Sasel
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 16, 2026Harksheide(home)3-1Oberliga - Hamburg
Aug 1, 2026Altona 93(away)2-0Oberliga - Hamburg
Jul 26, 2026Buchholz(home)0-4Oberliga - Hamburg
May 15, 2026Eimsbütteler TV(away)0-4Oberliga - Hamburg
May 10, 2026HT16(home)4-6Oberliga - Hamburg

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Harksheide win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Sasel win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 16, 2026Sasel 3-1 HarksheideOberliga - Hamburg
Mar 20, 2026Harksheide 1-2 SaselOberliga - Hamburg
Oct 5, 2025Sasel 6-2 HarksheideOberliga - Hamburg
Apr 6, 2025Sasel 0-0 HarksheideOberliga - Hamburg
Oct 18, 2024Harksheide 1-1 SaselOberliga - Hamburg
Nov 24, 2023Harksheide 1-1 SaselOberliga - Hamburg

Last archived meeting: Sasel vs Harksheide on Aug 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Harksheide score 1.6 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sasel score 2.5 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 81% probability of over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Harksheide1.62.7311/1512/15
Sasel2.52.4211/1513/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Harksheide sit 11th in Oberliga - Hamburg (45 points from 34 matches) and Sasel sit 10th (50 points from 34 matches).

2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Sasel3414812918850
11Harksheide3414317659245

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Harksheide vs Sasel?
The Footlab model makes Sasel the favourite at 47%, against 20% for a draw and 32% for Harksheide.
Where and when is Harksheide vs Sasel played?
Harksheide vs Sasel is played on January 29, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Kunstrasenplatz collatz+schwartz Sportpark, in the Oberliga - Hamburg.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 81% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Harksheide and Sasel

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