Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
The Footlab AI model makes Heart Of Midlothian the favourite at 70%, against 19% for a draw and 11% for ST Mirren. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren?
Heart Of Midlothian starts as the favourite with a 206-point Elo edge (2,058 vs 1,852).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Heart Of Midlothian
4-4-2- 10Cláudio Braga
- 21J. Wilson
- 78L. Mendy
- 15J. McPake
- 7C. Miller
- 22T. Magnússon
- 17S. Findlay
- 5J. McCart
- 23J. Altena
- 2C. Borchgrevink
- 1B. Reus
ST Mirren
4-2-3-1- 25N. Agrafiotis
- 8R. Carr
- 19Ismeal Kabia
- 30F. Taylor
- 48P. Nsio
- 23C. Mochrie
- 13A. Gogić
- 3D. John
- 53Henry Fieldson
- 47C. Ramsay
- 1J. Chapman
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 07:46 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heart Of Midlothian have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; ST Mirren have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Falkirk(away) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Dundee(home) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Hibernian(away) | 3-1 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dundee Utd(home) | 0-3 | Premiership |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Motherwell(home) | 3-3 | Premiership |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Heart Of Midlothian wins, 3 draws, 1 ST Mirren win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | ST Mirren 1-0 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian 2-0 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| Oct 29, 2025 | ST Mirren 2-2 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| Aug 16, 2025 | ST Mirren 1-1 Heart Of Midlothian | League Cup |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Heart Of Midlothian 3-1 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| Feb 10, 2025 | ST Mirren 1-1 Heart Of Midlothian | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: ST Mirren vs Heart Of Midlothian on Feb 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Heart Of Midlothian score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; ST Mirren score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| ST Mirren | 1.8 | 1.4 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heart Of Midlothian sit 3rd in Premiership (13 points from 7 matches) and ST Mirren sit 5th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
A question about Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren?
- The Footlab AI model makes Heart Of Midlothian the favourite at 70%, against 19% for a draw and 11% for ST Mirren.
- Where and when is Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren played?
- Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Tynecastle Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.