Motherwell vs Celtic: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Fir Park, Motherwell
The Footlab model makes Celtic the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Motherwell. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motherwell vs Celtic?
Celtic starts as the favourite with a 210-point Elo edge (2,184 vs 1,974).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motherwell have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Celtic have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | SC Freiburg(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Lask Linz(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dundee Utd(away) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 5-1 | Premiership |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Dundee(home) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Motherwell win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Celtic win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Motherwell 2-3 Celtic | Premiership |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Celtic 3-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Motherwell 2-0 Celtic | Premiership |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Celtic 3-2 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Motherwell 1-3 Celtic | Premiership |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Celtic 4-0 Motherwell | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Motherwell score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Celtic score 2.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Celtic | 2.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motherwell sit 4th in Premiership (4 points from 2 matches) and Celtic sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs Celtic?
- The Footlab model makes Celtic the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Motherwell.
- Where and when is Motherwell vs Celtic played?
- Motherwell vs Celtic is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Fir Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.