Motherwell vs Celtic: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Fir Park, Motherwell
The Footlab AI model makes Celtic the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Motherwell. The most likely score is 1-1. If Celtic wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motherwell vs Celtic?
Celtic starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (2,117 vs 1,920).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Motherwell vs Celtic
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Motherwell
4-2-3-1- 17R. Charles-Cook
- 18Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
- 8L. Fadinger
- 71J. Hodge
- 11A. Lowry
- 19I. Said
- 45M. Emmanuel
- 5M. Moormann
- 7T. Sparrow
- 3J. Girdwood-Reich
- 1A. Paulsen
Celtic
4-2-3-1- 11C. Durán
- 42C. McGregor
- 22M. Baur
- 8B. Nygren
- 23H. Hassan
- 14L. McCowan
- 51Colby Donovan
- 5L. Scales
- 20C. Carter-Vickers
- 6A. Trusty
- 1V. Sinisalo
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 10:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motherwell have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Celtic have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dundee(away) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Aberdeen(home) | 0-4 | Premiership |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Dundee Utd(home) | 3-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 30, 2026 | ST Mirren(away) | 3-3 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Rangers(home) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 9, 2026 | ST Johnstone(away) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 5, 2026 | ST Mirren(away) | 2-1 | Premiership |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Motherwell win, 0 draws, 5 Celtic wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Motherwell 2-3 Celtic | Premiership |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Celtic 3-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Motherwell 2-0 Celtic | Premiership |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Celtic 3-2 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Motherwell 1-3 Celtic | Premiership |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Celtic 4-0 Motherwell | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Motherwell score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Celtic score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 1.5 | 1.6 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Celtic | 1.8 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motherwell sit 9th in Premiership (8 points from 7 matches) and Celtic sit 1st (18 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
A question about Motherwell vs Celtic?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs Celtic?
- The Footlab AI model makes Celtic the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Motherwell.
- Where and when is Motherwell vs Celtic played?
- Motherwell vs Celtic is played on October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Fir Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.