Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
The Footlab model makes Heerenveen the favourite at 68%, against 18% for a draw and 14% for PEC Zwolle. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Heerenveen starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (2,009 vs 1,854).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heerenveen have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; PEC Zwolle have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Twente(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | OH Leuven(home) | 4-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Club Brugge KV(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Twente(away) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ajax(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hannover 96(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Cercle Brugge(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Heerenveen win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 PEC Zwolle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Heerenveen 4-2 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Nov 28, 2025 | PEC Zwolle 2-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Heerenveen 4-1 PEC Zwolle | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 16, 2025 | PEC Zwolle 1-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Heerenveen 1-1 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Jul 19, 2024 | Heerenveen 5-2 PEC Zwolle | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Heerenveen score 2.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; PEC Zwolle score 1.1 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 2.3 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| PEC Zwolle | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heerenveen sit 7th in Eredivisie (4 points from 2 matches) and PEC Zwolle sit 15th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Heerenveen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Who is out?
4 reported absence(s) for this match.
- E. SørensenPEC ZwolleDoubtful(Injury)
- T. SommerPEC ZwolleDoubtful(Illness)
- Y. NamliPEC ZwolleOut(Knee Injury)
- M. EgbringHeerenveenOut(Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
- The Footlab model makes Heerenveen the favourite at 68%, against 18% for a draw and 14% for PEC Zwolle.
- Where and when is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle played?
- Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle is played on August 22, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Abe Lenstra Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.