Groningen vs Heerenveen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Euroborg, Groningen
The Footlab model makes Groningen the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Heerenveen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groningen vs Heerenveen?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Groningen (1,949) and Heerenveen (1,984).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groningen have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Heerenveen have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valladolid(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Twente(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | OH Leuven(home) | 4-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Groningen win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Heerenveen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Heerenveen 0-2 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Groningen 2-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Groningen 1-0 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Heerenveen 2-1 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Groningen 0-2 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Heerenveen 3-1 Groningen | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Heerenveen vs Groningen on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Groningen score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Heerenveen score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Heerenveen | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groningen sit 5th in Eredivisie (6 points from 3 matches) and Heerenveen sit 9th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groningen vs Heerenveen?
- The Footlab model makes Groningen the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Heerenveen.
- Where and when is Groningen vs Heerenveen played?
- Groningen vs Heerenveen is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Euroborg, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.