Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Fortuna Sittard. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar starts as the favourite with a 266-point Elo edge (2,155 vs 1,889).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fortuna Sittard have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; AZ Alkmaar have 8, 7 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cambuur(home) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Apoel Nicosia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Metz(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 4-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Genk(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Fortuna Sittard win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 AZ Alkmaar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 4-3 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Feb 23, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Fortuna Sittard 1-0 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Fortuna Sittard 1-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Oct 1, 2023 | AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fortuna Sittard score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; AZ Alkmaar score 2.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fortuna Sittard sit 4th in Eredivisie (4 points from 2 matches) and AZ Alkmaar sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Who is out?
6 reported absence(s) for this match.
- D. KasiusAZ AlkmaarOut(Groin Injury)
- J. ClasieAZ AlkmaarOut(Injury)
- J. HornkampAZ AlkmaarOut(Ankle Injury)
- S. ResinkAZ AlkmaarOut(Knee Injury)
- Iván MárquezFortuna SittardDoubtful(Injury)
- S. SimonsFortuna SittardOut(Hamstring Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
- The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Fortuna Sittard.
- Where and when is Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar played?
- Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar is played on August 22, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.