Heist vs Merelbeke: prediction and stats
First Amateur DivisionVV - 30Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Gemeentelijk Sportcentrum, Heist-Op-Den-Berg
The Footlab model makes Heist the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Merelbeke. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heist vs Merelbeke?
Heist starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,935 vs 1,797).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heist have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Merelbeke have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | KV Mechelen(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bocholt(home) | 3-0 | Second Amateur Division - VFV B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Berchem Sport(away) | 4-2 | Second Amateur Division - VFV B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Gent(home) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ninove(away) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Roeselare Daisel(home) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Houtvenne(home) | 2-1 | First Amateur Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Heist win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Merelbeke win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | Heist 1-2 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Merelbeke 3-0 Heist | First Amateur Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Heist score 2.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Merelbeke score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heist | 2.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Merelbeke | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Merelbeke | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heist vs Merelbeke?
- The Footlab model makes Heist the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Merelbeke.
- Where and when is Heist vs Merelbeke played?
- Heist vs Merelbeke is played on April 24, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Gemeentelijk Sportcentrum, in the First Amateur Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.