Hong Kong FC vs Kitchee: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 08:30 AM (UTC)Hong Kong Football Club Stadium, Hong Kong
The Footlab model makes Kitchee the favourite at 79%, against 13% for a draw and 8% for Hong Kong FC. The most likely score is 0-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hong Kong FC vs Kitchee?
Kitchee is a heavy favourite: 1,685 Elo points against 1,205, a 480-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hong Kong FC have 2 wins, 1 draws and 12 defeats; Kitchee have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Southern District(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Kowloon City(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | BC Rangers(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| May 3, 2026 | Southern District(home) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Eastern District(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | BC Rangers(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Prime Bangkok(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Eastern(home) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| May 2, 2026 | Wofoo Tai Po(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | North District(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Hong Kong FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Kitchee win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Kitchee 5-2 Hong Kong FC | Premier League |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Hong Kong FC 1-2 Kitchee | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Kitchee 3-1 Hong Kong FC | Premier League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Hong Kong FC 1-3 Kitchee | Premier League |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Kitchee 3-1 Hong Kong FC | Sapling Cup |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Kitchee 4-0 Hong Kong FC | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Kitchee vs Hong Kong FC on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hong Kong FC score 1.0 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Kitchee score 2.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong FC | 1.0 | 2.7 | 0 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Kitchee | 2.3 | 1.4 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hong Kong FC sit 5th in Premier League (11 points from 22 matches) and Kitchee sit 1st (52 points from 22 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 54 | 28 | 52 |
| 5 | Hong Kong FC | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 60 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hong Kong FC vs Kitchee?
- The Footlab model makes Kitchee the favourite at 79%, against 13% for a draw and 8% for Hong Kong FC.
- Where and when is Hong Kong FC vs Kitchee played?
- Hong Kong FC vs Kitchee is played on December 20, 2026 at 08:30 AM (UTC) at Hong Kong Football Club Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.