Hungary vs Ukraine: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League1Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Puskás Aréna, Budapest
The Footlab model makes Hungary the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Ukraine. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hungary vs Ukraine?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Hungary (1,585) and Ukraine (1,616).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hungary have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Ukraine have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Kazakhstan(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Finland(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Greece(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Slovenia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Rep. Of Ireland(home) | 2-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Denmark(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Poland(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Albania(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Sweden(home) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Iceland(home) | 2-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
How many goals should we expect?
Hungary score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ukraine score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hungary | 1.4 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Ukraine | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hungary vs Ukraine?
- The Footlab model makes Hungary the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Ukraine.
- Where and when is Hungary vs Ukraine played?
- Hungary vs Ukraine is played on September 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Puskás Aréna, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.