Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League1Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadion Śląski, Chorzów
The Footlab model makes Poland the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Bosnia & Herzegovina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Poland (1,591) and Bosnia & Herzegovina (1,503).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Poland have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Bosnia & Herzegovina have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Nigeria(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Ukraine(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden(away) | 2-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Albania(home) | 2-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Malta(away) | 3-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Qatar(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Switzerland(away) | 1-4 | World Cup |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Canada(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Panama(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| May 29, 2026 | FYR Macedonia(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Poland win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Bosnia & Herzegovina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2020 | Poland 3-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 7, 2020 | Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-2 Poland | UEFA Nations League |
Last archived meeting: Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina on Oct 14, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Poland score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bosnia & Herzegovina score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
- The Footlab model makes Poland the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Bosnia & Herzegovina.
- Where and when is Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina played?
- Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina is played on September 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadion Śląski, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.