Austria vs Israel: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League1Kick-off on September 24, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Ernst-Happel-Stadion, Vienna
The Footlab model makes Austria the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Israel. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Austria vs Israel?
Austria starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,688 vs 1,509).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Austria have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Israel have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Algeria(away) | 3-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Jordan(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | South Korea(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Albania(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Georgia(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Moldova(home) | 4-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Lithuania(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Italy(away) | 0-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Austria win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Israel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2021 | Austria 4-2 Israel | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Sep 4, 2021 | Israel 5-2 Austria | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Oct 10, 2019 | Austria 3-1 Israel | Euro Championship |
| Mar 24, 2019 | Israel 4-2 Austria | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Austria score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Israel score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Israel | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Austria vs Israel?
- The Footlab model makes Austria the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Israel.
- Where and when is Austria vs Israel played?
- Austria vs Israel is played on September 24, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Ernst-Happel-Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.