Ilirija vs Jesenice: prediction and stats
2. SNLRegular Season - 21Kick-off on March 27, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Športni park Ilirija, Ljubljana
The Footlab model makes Ilirija the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Jesenice. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ilirija vs Jesenice?
Ilirija starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,498 vs 1,394).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ilirija have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Jesenice have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rudar(home) | 2-0 | 2. SNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bistrica(away) | 6-0 | 2. SNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dravinja(home) | 1-0 | 2. SNL |
| May 22, 2026 | Beltinci(home) | 1-3 | 2. SNL |
| May 15, 2026 | Gorica(away) | 0-1 | 2. SNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dekani(away) | 2-0 | 2. SNL |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Krško(home) | 1-1 | 2. SNL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tabor Sežana(home) | 0-3 | 2. SNL |
| May 23, 2026 | Dravinja(home) | 0-1 | 2. SNL |
| May 15, 2026 | Krka(away) | 2-3 | 2. SNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Ilirija win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Jesenice win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Ilirija 2-0 Jesenice | 2. SNL |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Jesenice 0-3 Ilirija | 2. SNL |
How many goals should we expect?
Ilirija score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Jesenice score 0.7 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilirija | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Jesenice | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ilirija sit 2nd in 2. SNL (9 points from 3 matches) and Jesenice sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ilirija | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Jesenice | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ilirija vs Jesenice?
- The Footlab model makes Ilirija the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Jesenice.
- Where and when is Ilirija vs Jesenice played?
- Ilirija vs Jesenice is played on March 27, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Športni park Ilirija, in the 2. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.