Ilves W vs HPS W: prediction and stats
Kansallinen LiigaChampionship Playoffs - 9Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes HPS W the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Ilves W. The most likely score is 1-1. If HPS W wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ilves W vs HPS W?
HPS W starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (1,587 vs 1,424).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ilves W vs HPS W
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ilves W
4-3-3- 24E. Mäkipelkola
- 8A. Ljesnjanin
- 17T. Perttula
- 12V. Spets
- 14A. Rasinen
- 9S. Tuomala
- 5A. Olmala
- 40K. Juvonen
- 27H. Perkaus
- 88S. Laine
- 37N. Hautamäki
HPS W
Not enough data to predict the HPS W lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 10:07 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ilves W have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; HPS W have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | KuPS W(home) | 3-3 | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Sep 26, 2026 | IF Gnistan(away) | 3-0 | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Åland United W(home) | 2-3 | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | HPS W(away) | 0-1 | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | KuPS W(away) | 1-2 | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | HJK W(away) | 3-2 | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Åland United W(home) | 1-0 | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | KuPS W(away) | 0-0 | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Ilves W(home) | 1-0 | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Åland United W(away) | 1-2 | Kansallinen Liiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ilves W wins, 0 draws, 4 HPS W wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | HPS W 1-0 Ilves W | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | HPS W 1-2 Ilves W | Kansallinen Liiga |
| May 22, 2026 | Ilves W 1-0 HPS W | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Aug 31, 2024 | HPS W 1-0 Ilves W | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Jun 9, 2024 | Ilves W 0-2 HPS W | Kansallinen Liiga |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Ilves W 0-1 HPS W | Kansallinen Liiga |
How many goals should we expect?
Ilves W score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; HPS W score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves W | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| HPS W | 1.3 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ilves W sit 5th in Kansallinen Liiga (22 points from 14 matches) and HPS W sit 4th (24 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 26 | 22 |
A question about Ilves W vs HPS W?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ilves W vs HPS W?
- The Footlab AI model makes HPS W the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Ilves W.
- Where and when is Ilves W vs HPS W played?
- Ilves W vs HPS W is played on October 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC), in the Kansallinen Liiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.