Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 19Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Isidro Metapán the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Inca Aruba. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán?
Isidro Metapán starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,642 vs 1,507).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 6 matches in all competitions, Inca Aruba have 0 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Isidro Metapán have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter(away) | 1-4 | Primera Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Firpo(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Platense(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FAS(home) | 0-4 | Primera Division |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Municipal Limeño(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alianza(home) | 2-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fuerte San Francisco(away) | 0-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Águila(home) | 2-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Atletico Balboa(away) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | FAS(home) | 2-0 | Primera Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Inca Aruba score 0.3 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 6; Isidro Metapán score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inca Aruba | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1 | 2/6 | 3/6 |
| Isidro Metapán | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 6 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Inca Aruba sit 12th in Primera Division (1 points from 6 matches) and Isidro Metapán sit 1st (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isidro Metapán | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | Inca Aruba | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán?
- The Footlab model makes Isidro Metapán the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Inca Aruba.
- Where and when is Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán played?
- Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC), in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.