Independiente vs Independ. Rivadavia: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 6Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Libertadores de América, Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Independ. Rivadavia the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Independiente. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Independiente vs Independ. Rivadavia?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Independiente (1,924) and Independ. Rivadavia (1,972).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Independ. Rivadavia have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lanus(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 0-4 | Copa Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Platense(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Newells Old Boys(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Sarmiento Junin(away) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Independiente win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Independ. Rivadavia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia 3-2 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| May 11, 2025 | Independiente 1-0 Independ. Rivadavia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Independ. Rivadavia 1-0 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Independ. Rivadavia 0-1 Independiente | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Mar 3, 2014 | Independ. Rivadavia 2-1 Independiente | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 1, 2013 | Independiente 0-0 Independ. Rivadavia | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Independ. Rivadavia vs Independiente on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Independiente score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Independ. Rivadavia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Independ. Rivadavia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Independiente sit 5th in Liga Profesional Argentina (24 points from 16 matches) and Independ. Rivadavia sit 1st (34 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 34 |
| 3 | Independiente | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 24 |
| 10 | Independ. Rivadavia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Independiente vs Independ. Rivadavia?
- The Footlab model makes Independ. Rivadavia the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Independiente.
- Where and when is Independiente vs Independ. Rivadavia played?
- Independiente vs Independ. Rivadavia is played on August 22, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Libertadores de América, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 21, 2026Aldosivi1-3Union Santa Fe
- Aug 21, 2026Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0-0San Lorenzo
- Aug 22, 2026Gimnasia L.P.vsGimnasia M.
- Aug 22, 2026Atletico TucumanvsInstituto Cordoba
- Aug 23, 2026Newells Old BoysvsBanfield
- Aug 23, 2026HuracanvsDeportivo Riestra
- Aug 23, 2026Sarmiento JuninvsEstudiantes L.P.
- Aug 23, 2026Barracas CentralvsPlatense