Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes L.P.: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 6Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Estudiantes L.P. the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Sarmiento Junin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes L.P.?
Estudiantes L.P. starts as the favourite with a 160-point Elo edge (1,963 vs 1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarmiento Junin have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Estudiantes L.P. have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Huracan(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Banfield(away) | 2-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Argentinos JRS(home) | 2-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | U. Catolica(away) | 3-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P.(home) | 4-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | U. Catolica(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Boca Juniors(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sarmiento Junin win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Estudiantes L.P. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P. 1-0 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jun 13, 2024 | Sarmiento Junin 2-0 Estudiantes L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Sarmiento Junin 3-1 Estudiantes L.P. | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Oct 23, 2023 | Estudiantes L.P. 2-1 Sarmiento Junin | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Estudiantes L.P. 1-1 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jun 15, 2022 | Estudiantes L.P. 2-1 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Estudiantes L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin on Feb 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sarmiento Junin score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Estudiantes L.P. score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin | 1.2 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Estudiantes L.P. | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sarmiento Junin sit 11th in Liga Profesional Argentina (19 points from 16 matches) and Estudiantes L.P. sit 1st (31 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 31 |
| 4 | Sarmiento Junin | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 9 | Estudiantes L.P. | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes L.P.?
- The Footlab model makes Estudiantes L.P. the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Sarmiento Junin.
- Where and when is Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes L.P. played?
- Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes L.P. is played on August 23, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 21, 2026Aldosivi1-3Union Santa Fe
- Aug 21, 2026Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0-0San Lorenzo
- Aug 22, 2026Gimnasia L.P.vsGimnasia M.
- Aug 22, 2026Atletico TucumanvsInstituto Cordoba
- Aug 22, 2026IndependientevsIndepend. Rivadavia
- Aug 23, 2026HuracanvsDeportivo Riestra
- Aug 23, 2026Newells Old BoysvsBanfield
- Aug 23, 2026Barracas CentralvsPlatense