Lecce vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 36Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce
The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Lecce. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fiorentina wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,398 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Fiorentina starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,972 vs 1,841).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lecce vs Fiorentina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lecce
4-3-3- 50S. Pierotti
- 22Paco Esteban
- 7A. Ahmed Fatah
- 29L. Coulibaly
- 20I. Ilić
- 14Y. Maleh
- 17Danilo Veiga
- 25A. Gallo
- 5J. Siebert
- 44Tiago Gabriel
- 30W. Falcone
Fiorentina
4-2-3-1- 23Beto
- 30Franco Mastantuono
- 27C. Ndour
- 44N. Fagioli
- 42C. Inao Oulaï
- 29W. Gnonto
- 3R. Drăgușin
- 20Álex Jiménez
- 6L. Ranieri
- 21Valde
- 43David de Gea
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 09:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lecce have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; Fiorentina have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Monza(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Cagliari(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 0-4 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Pisa(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 4-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Torino(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lecce wins, 2 draws, 2 Fiorentina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | Lecce 1-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Fiorentina 0-1 Lecce | Serie A |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Fiorentina 1-0 Lecce | Serie A |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Lecce 0-6 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Feb 2, 2024 | Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Fiorentina 2-2 Lecce | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Lecce score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Fiorentina | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lecce sit 13th in Serie A (6 points from 6 matches) and Fiorentina sit 19th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 4 |
A question about Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lecce vs Fiorentina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Lecce.
- Where and when is Lecce vs Fiorentina played?
- Lecce vs Fiorentina is played on May 16, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.