Internacional vs Gremio: prediction and stats
Copa Do BrasilQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 27, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
The Footlab model makes Internacional the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Gremio. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Internacional vs Gremio?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Internacional (1,949) and Gremio (1,927).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Internacional have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Gremio have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Remo(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 1-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Mirassol(away) | 1-1 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Bolívar(home) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Internacional win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Gremio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Internacional 0-0 Gremio | Serie A |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Internacional 1-1 Gremio | Gaúcho - 1 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Gremio 3-0 Internacional | Gaúcho - 1 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Internacional 4-2 Gremio | Gaúcho - 1 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Internacional 2-3 Gremio | Serie A |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Gremio 1-1 Internacional | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Internacional vs Gremio on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Internacional score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Gremio score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Gremio | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Internacional vs Gremio?
- The Footlab model makes Internacional the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Gremio.
- Where and when is Internacional vs Gremio played?
- Internacional vs Gremio is played on August 27, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, in the Copa Do Brasil.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.