Gremio vs Mirassol: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 38Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
The Footlab AI model makes Gremio the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Mirassol. The most likely score is 1-1. If Gremio wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,456 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gremio vs Mirassol?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Gremio (1,821) and Mirassol (1,848).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gremio vs Mirassol
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gremio
4-1-4-1- 95Carlos Vinícius
- 20M. Villasanti
- 7C. Pavón
- 9F. Amuzu
- 15Danilo Barbosa
- 10F. Krovinović
- 82Wallace
- 4W. Kannemann
- 27Diego Caito
- 23Marlon
- 1Weverton
Mirassol
4-2-3-1- 30Bruno Santos
- 27Denilson
- 10Chico
- 33Eduardo
- 77Alesson
- 19Gustavo Silva
- 3Willian Machado
- 6Reinaldo
- 32Igor Formiga
- 34João Victor
- 22Walter
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:18 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gremio have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Mirassol have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Remo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Bahia(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Uberlandia(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Gremio win, 1 draw, 4 Mirassol wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gremio 1-0 Mirassol | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Mirassol 1-1 Gremio | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Mirassol 2-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Gremio 0-1 Mirassol | Serie A |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Mirassol 4-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| Mar 2, 2022 | Mirassol 3-2 Gremio | Copa Do Brasil |
How many goals should we expect?
Gremio score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mirassol score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Mirassol | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gremio sit 18th in Serie A (31 points from 30 matches) and Mirassol sit 15th (33 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 44 | 33 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 40 | 31 |
A question about Gremio vs Mirassol?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gremio vs Mirassol?
- The Footlab AI model makes Gremio the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Mirassol.
- Where and when is Gremio vs Mirassol played?
- Gremio vs Mirassol is played on December 2, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena do Grêmio, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.