Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG: prediction and stats
Copa Do BrasilQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Atletico-MG. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Cruzeiro (2,026) and Atletico-MG (1,983).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cruzeiro have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Atletico-MG have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 2-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Remo(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 1-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cruzeiro win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Atletico-MG win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Cruzeiro 1-3 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Cruzeiro 1-0 Atletico-MG | Mineiro - 1 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Atletico-MG 2-1 Cruzeiro | Mineiro - 1 |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Atletico-MG 1-1 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Sep 11, 2025 | Cruzeiro 2-0 Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Atletico-MG 0-2 Cruzeiro | Copa Do Brasil |
Last archived meeting: Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cruzeiro score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico-MG score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 1.5 | 0.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Atletico-MG | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
- The Footlab model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Atletico-MG.
- Where and when is Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG played?
- Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG is played on August 26, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, in the Copa Do Brasil.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.