Irao vs Merani Tbilisi: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 30Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Irao the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Merani Tbilisi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Irao vs Merani Tbilisi?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Irao (1,357) and Merani Tbilisi (1,267).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Irao have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Merani Tbilisi have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Margveti 2006(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Gardabani(home) | 3-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Betlemi(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(home) | 1-4 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Rustavi II(away) | 3-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Betlemi(away) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Guria(home) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Didube 2014(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Guria(away) | 1-6 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Irao(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Irao win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Merani Tbilisi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Merani Tbilisi 1-1 Irao | Liga 3 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Irao 2-0 Merani Tbilisi | Liga 3 |
| Jun 3, 2025 | Merani Tbilisi 4-3 Irao | Liga 3 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Irao 1-5 Merani Tbilisi | Liga 3 |
| Apr 11, 2024 | Merani Tbilisi 1-2 Irao | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Merani Tbilisi vs Irao on Jun 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Irao score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Merani Tbilisi score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irao | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Merani Tbilisi | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Irao sit 6th in Liga 3 (30 points from 18 matches) and Merani Tbilisi sit 7th (29 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Irao | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 18 | 30 |
| 7 | Merani Tbilisi | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Irao vs Merani Tbilisi?
- The Footlab model makes Irao the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Merani Tbilisi.
- Where and when is Irao vs Merani Tbilisi played?
- Irao vs Merani Tbilisi is played on December 4, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC), in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.