Varketili vs Gardabani: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 30Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Varketili Stadium, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Varketili the favourite at 89%, against 8% for a draw and 3% for Gardabani. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varketili vs Gardabani?
Varketili is a heavy favourite: 1,488 Elo points against 1,120 — a 368-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varketili have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Gardabani have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Iberia 2010(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Kolkheti Khobi(home) | 4-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Margveti 2006(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Rustavi(home) | 0-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Aragvelebi(away) | 4-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Didube 2014(home) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Irao(away) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | WIT Georgia(home) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Iberia 2010(home) | 1-5 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Varketili(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Varketili win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Gardabani win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Gardabani 1-3 Varketili | Liga 3 |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Varketili 4-0 Gardabani | Liga 3 |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Gardabani 1-2 Varketili | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2024 | Varketili 1-1 Gardabani | Liga 3 |
| Mar 14, 2024 | Gardabani 2-0 Varketili | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Gardabani vs Varketili on Jun 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Varketili score 2.6 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Gardabani score 0.9 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varketili | 2.6 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Gardabani | 0.9 | 2.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varketili sit 1st in Liga 3 (44 points from 18 matches) and Gardabani sit 13th (13 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varketili | 18 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 45 | 9 | 44 |
| 13 | Gardabani | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 40 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varketili vs Gardabani?
- The Footlab model makes Varketili the favourite at 89%, against 8% for a draw and 3% for Gardabani.
- Where and when is Varketili vs Gardabani played?
- Varketili vs Gardabani is played on December 4, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Varketili Stadium, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.