Iraq vs Iran: prediction and stats
FriendliesFriendly InternationalKick-off on November 17, 2026 at 04:15 PM (UTC)Basra International Stadium, Basra
The Footlab AI model makes Iran the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Iraq. The most likely score is 1-1. If Iran wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 5,238 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Iraq vs Iran?
Iran starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (1,783 vs 1,635).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Iraq vs Iran
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Iraq
4-2-3-1- 10H. Abdulkareem
- 16Amir Al Ammari
- 11A. Qasem
- 13S. Rasheed
- 6Z. Ismaeel
- 20Karar Nabeel
- 23Merchas Doski
- 25J. Al-Imam
- 3Mustafa Saadoun
- 4Zayed Tahseen
- 1Ahmed Basil
Iran
5-4-1- 24D. Eckert Ayensa
- 9M. Taremi
- 6S. Ezatolahi
- 16M. Ghorbani
- 29M. Mohebi
- 17A. Yousefi
- 2Saleh Hardani
- 19A. Nemati
- 4S. Khalilzadeh
- 23R. Rezaeian
- 22H. Hosseini
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 08:17 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iraq have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Iran have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(away) | 0-2 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Kuwait(away) | 3-2 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oman(home) | 1-1 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 0-5 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | France(away) | 0-3 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Russia(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Uzbekistan(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Egypt(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Belgium(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 16, 2026 | New Zealand(home) | 2-2 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Iraq wins, 1 draw, 3 Iran wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2022 | Iran 1-0 Iraq | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Sep 7, 2021 | Iraq 0-3 Iran | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Jun 15, 2021 | Iran 1-0 Iraq | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Nov 14, 2019 | Iraq 2-1 Iran | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Jan 16, 2019 | Iran 0-0 Iraq | Asian Cup |
| Mar 18, 2017 | Iran 0-1 Iraq | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Iraq score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Iran score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Iran | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Iraq vs Iran?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Iraq vs Iran?
- The Footlab AI model makes Iran the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Iraq.
- Where and when is Iraq vs Iran played?
- Iraq vs Iran is played on November 17, 2026 at 04:15 PM (UTC) at Basra International Stadium, in the Friendlies.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.