Tajikistan vs Iraq: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Republican Central Stadium, Dushanbe
The Footlab AI model makes Tajikistan the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Iraq. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tajikistan wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tajikistan vs Iraq?
On Elo ratings, Tajikistan has 1,511 points and Iraq 1,635.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tajikistan vs Iraq
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tajikistan
4-1-4-1- 14S. Boboev
- 7P. Umarbayev
- 15S. Mabatshoev
- 8A. Dzhuraboev
- 10A. Dzhalilov
- 17E. Panjshanbe
- 3T. Islomov
- 6V. Khanonov
- 20A. Karomatullozoda
- 2Z. Dzhuraboev
- 1R. Yatimov
Iraq
4-2-3-1- 10H. Abdulkareem
- 16Amir Al Ammari
- 11A. Qasem
- 13S. Rasheed
- 6Z. Ismaeel
- 20Karar Nabeel
- 23Merchas Doski
- 25J. Al-Imam
- 3Mustafa Saadoun
- 4Zayed Tahseen
- 1Ahmed Basil
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tajikistan have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Iraq have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | China(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Palestine(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 9, 2026 | India(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | India(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(away) | 0-2 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Kuwait(away) | 3-2 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oman(home) | 1-1 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 0-5 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | France(away) | 0-3 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Tajikistan wins, 1 draw, 0 Iraq wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2021 | Iraq 0-0 Tajikistan | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Tajikistan score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Iraq score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajikistan | 1.9 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Iraq | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tajikistan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 14 |
A question about Tajikistan vs Iraq?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tajikistan vs Iraq?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tajikistan the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Iraq.
- Where and when is Tajikistan vs Iraq played?
- Tajikistan vs Iraq is played on January 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Republican Central Stadium, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.