Iran vs China: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Azadi Stadium, Tehran
The Footlab AI model makes Iran the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for China. The most likely score is 1-1. If Iran wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Iran vs China?
Iran starts as the favourite with a 271-point Elo edge (1,783 vs 1,512).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Iran vs China
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Iran
5-4-1- 24D. Eckert Ayensa
- 9M. Taremi
- 6S. Ezatolahi
- 16M. Ghorbani
- 29M. Mohebi
- 2Saleh Hardani
- 17A. Yousefi
- 19A. Nemati
- 4S. Khalilzadeh
- 23R. Rezaeian
- 22H. Hosseini
China
4-4-2- 10Wei Shihao
- 9Wang Ziming
- 6Wang Shangyuan
- 13Huang Shenghao
- 7Xie Wenneng
- 17Bunyamin Abdusalam
- 19Liu Yang
- 2Jiang Guangtai
- 4Gao Zhunyi
- 21Li Yang
- 12Liu Dianzuo
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:52 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iran have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; China have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Russia(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Uzbekistan(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Egypt(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Belgium(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 16, 2026 | New Zealand(home) | 2-2 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Tajikistan(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Palestine(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Sep 27, 2026 | New Zealand(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Maldives(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Thailand(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Iran wins, 1 draw, 0 China wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2019 | China 0-3 Iran | Asian Cup |
| Mar 28, 2017 | Iran 1-0 China | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Sep 6, 2016 | China 0-0 Iran | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
How many goals should we expect?
Iran score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; China score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| China | 0.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 2/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Iran vs China?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Iran vs China?
- The Footlab AI model makes Iran the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for China.
- Where and when is Iran vs China played?
- Iran vs China is played on January 9, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Azadi Stadium, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.