Iran vs China: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Azadi Stadium, Tehran
The Footlab model makes Iran the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for China. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Iran vs China?
Iran starts as the favourite with a 266-point Elo edge (1,800 vs 1,535).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iran have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; China have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Egypt(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Belgium(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 16, 2026 | New Zealand(home) | 2-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Mali(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| May 29, 2026 | Gambia(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Thailand(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Singapore(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Cameroon(home) | 0-2 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Curaçao(home) | 2-0 | FIFA Series |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Uzbekistan(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Iran win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 China win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2019 | China 0-3 Iran | Asian Cup |
| Mar 28, 2017 | Iran 1-0 China | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Sep 6, 2016 | China 0-0 Iran | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
How many goals should we expect?
Iran score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; China score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 1.7 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| China | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Iran vs China?
- The Footlab model makes Iran the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for China.
- Where and when is Iran vs China played?
- Iran vs China is played on January 9, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Azadi Stadium, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.