Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula
The Footlab model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Istra 1961. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Dinamo Zagreb is a heavy favourite: 2,165 Elo points against 1,860 — a 305-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Istra 1961 have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Dinamo Zagreb have 12, 3 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo(home) | 3-0 | HNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 2-2 | HNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb(home) | 2-3 | HNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NK Varazdin(home) | 3-1 | HNL |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Viking(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rudes(home) | 4-0 | HNL |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(home) | 5-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Istra 1961 win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Dinamo Zagreb win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Istra 1961 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb 4-0 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Istra 1961 2-1 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Istra 1961 3-0 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 Istra 1961 | HNL |
Last archived meeting: Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Istra 1961 score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Dinamo Zagreb score 2.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istra 1961 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 2.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Istra 1961 sit 5th in HNL (4 points from 3 matches) and Dinamo Zagreb sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Istra 1961 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb?
- The Footlab model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Istra 1961.
- Where and when is Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb played?
- Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion Aldo Drosina, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.