Jaraíz vs Llerenense: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera, Jaraíz de la Vera
The Footlab model makes Jaraíz the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Llerenense. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jaraíz vs Llerenense?
Jaraíz starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,876 vs 1,767).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jaraíz have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Llerenense have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Badajoz(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 17, 2026 | Badajoz(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 10, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Llerenense(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Calamonte(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 1, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Jaraíz(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Montehermoso(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Villanovense(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Jaraíz win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Llerenense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Llerenense 1-1 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Jaraíz 1-1 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 25, 2025 | Jaraíz 1-2 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 18, 2025 | Llerenense 2-1 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Llerenense 3-0 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Jaraíz 2-2 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Jaraíz score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Llerenense score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaraíz | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Llerenense | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jaraíz sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (59 points from 34 matches) and Llerenense sit 11th (41 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jaraíz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53 | 33 | 59 |
| 11 | Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 44 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jaraíz vs Llerenense?
- The Footlab model makes Jaraíz the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Llerenense.
- Where and when is Jaraíz vs Llerenense played?
- Jaraíz vs Llerenense is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol de Jaraíz de la Vera, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.