Joinville vs Hercílio Luz: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Arena Joinville, Joinville, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Hercílio Luz the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Joinville. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Hercílio Luz starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (1,783 vs 1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Joinville have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Hercílio Luz have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | São Luiz(away) | 1-3 | Serie D |
| May 30, 2026 | Guarany de Bagé(home) | 2-0 | Serie D |
| May 23, 2026 | Cianorte(home) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| May 16, 2026 | Santa Catarina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| May 10, 2026 | Cascavel(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nação(away) | 2-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Caravaggio(home) | 0-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Tubarao(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Juventus SC(home) | 1-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Joinville win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Hercílio Luz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2025 | Hercílio Luz 2-1 Joinville | Catarinense - 1 |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Joinville 1-2 Hercílio Luz | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Feb 2, 2024 | Hercílio Luz 1-1 Joinville | Catarinense - 1 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Hercílio Luz 1-0 Joinville | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Hercílio Luz 1-0 Joinville | Catarinense - 1 |
| Feb 3, 2022 | Joinville 0-0 Hercílio Luz | Catarinense - 1 |
Last archived meeting: Hercílio Luz vs Joinville on Feb 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Joinville score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Hercílio Luz score 2.1 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joinville | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Hercílio Luz | 2.1 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
- The Footlab model makes Hercílio Luz the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Joinville.
- Where and when is Joinville vs Hercílio Luz played?
- Joinville vs Hercílio Luz is played on September 13, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Joinville, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.