Juventus vs AC Milan: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Allianz Stadium, Torino
The Footlab model makes Juventus the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for AC Milan. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Juventus vs AC Milan?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Juventus (2,188) and AC Milan (2,148).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Juventus have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; AC Milan have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nice(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Juventus win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 AC Milan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | AC Milan 0-0 Juventus | Serie A |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Juventus 0-0 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Juventus 2-0 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Juventus 1-2 AC Milan | Super Cup |
| Nov 23, 2024 | AC Milan 0-0 Juventus | Serie A |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Juventus 0-0 AC Milan | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Juventus score 1.1 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; AC Milan score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 1.1 | 0.5 | 11 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
| AC Milan | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Juventus sit 6th in Serie A (3 points from 1 matches) and AC Milan sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Juventus vs AC Milan?
- The Footlab model makes Juventus the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for AC Milan.
- Where and when is Juventus vs AC Milan played?
- Juventus vs AC Milan is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.