Cagliari vs Lecce: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Unipol Domus, Cagliari
The Footlab model makes Cagliari the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Lecce. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cagliari vs Lecce?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Cagliari (2,005) and Lecce (1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cagliari have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Lecce have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Arezzo(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nice(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Union Berlin(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Modena(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Sampdoria(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Palermo(away) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SS Monopoli(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bistrica(home) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | FC Politehnica Timisoara(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cagliari win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Lecce win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | Cagliari 0-2 Lecce | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Lecce 1-2 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Cagliari 4-1 Lecce | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Lecce 1-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
| May 5, 2024 | Cagliari 1-1 Lecce | Serie A |
| Jan 6, 2024 | Lecce 1-1 Cagliari | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Cagliari score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lecce score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Lecce | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cagliari sit 14th in Serie A (43 points from 38 matches) and Lecce sit 17th (38 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cagliari | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 40 | 53 | 43 |
| 17 | Lecce | 38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 50 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cagliari vs Lecce?
- The Footlab model makes Cagliari the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Lecce.
- Where and when is Cagliari vs Lecce played?
- Cagliari vs Lecce is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Unipol Domus, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.