Kapaz vs Qarabag: prediction and stats
Premyer LiqaMatchday 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Şəhər stadionu, Gəncə
The Footlab AI model makes Qarabag the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 23% for Kapaz. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,194 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kapaz vs Qarabag?
Qarabag is a heavy favourite: 2,039 Elo points against 1,702, a 337-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Kapaz vs Qarabag
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Kapaz
4-3-3- 9K. Kalunga
- 10Rahman Haciyev
- 21Asumah Abubakar
- 11V. Stînă
- 27D. Acquah
- 33Benito
- 14A. Fofana
- 4M. Abuladze
- 34Ü. Abbasov
- 66D. Domgjoni
- 1Rogério Santos
Qarabag
4-2-3-1- 9Z. Sawo
- 33Diego Rosa
- 21O. Kashchuk
- 20Kady
- 8M. Janković
- 7J. Mouaddib
- 5Bruno Langa
- 4B. Várkonyi
- 25Č. Makreckis
- 2Matheus Silva
- 1Ş. Məhəmmədəliyev
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 06:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kapaz have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Qarabag have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | Neftchi Baku(away) | 0-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Imisli FK(home) | 1-0 | Premyer Liqa |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Baku Sportinq(home) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Safa Baku(away) | 2-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Zira(home) | 1-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | Turan(home) | 0-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Qabala(away) | 0-0 | Premyer Liqa |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sabah FA(away) | 0-0 | Premyer Liqa |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Neftchi Baku(home) | 3-3 | Premyer Liqa |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Imisli FK(away) | 2-0 | Premyer Liqa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kapaz wins, 1 draw, 3 Qarabag wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Kapaz 1-0 Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Qarabag 0-2 Kapaz | Premyer Liqa |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Qarabag 1-0 Kapaz | Premyer Liqa |
| May 18, 2025 | Qarabag 3-0 Kapaz | Premyer Liqa |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Kapaz 0-0 Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Kapaz 0-5 Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
How many goals should we expect?
Kapaz score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Qarabag score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapaz | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Qarabag | 1.2 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kapaz sit 6th in Premyer Liqa (17 points from 10 matches) and Qarabag sit 4th (19 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Qarabag | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Kapaz | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 17 |
A question about Kapaz vs Qarabag?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kapaz vs Qarabag?
- The Footlab AI model makes Qarabag the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 23% for Kapaz.
- Where and when is Kapaz vs Qarabag played?
- Kapaz vs Qarabag is played on November 22, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Şəhər stadionu, in the Premyer Liqa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.